See full UOP report at http://forecast.pacific.edu/CA_Metro_Forecast_June05.pdf
From Daily Republic, Fairfield, CA // June 30, 2005
By Matthew Bunk // Staff Writer
FAIRFIELD - California's housing market will begin to deflate by 2007, fewer Fairfield workers will commute to work in the year 2030, and tourism will be a major economic engine for Solano County if the popularity of wine continues to grow.
Those were findings of a study released Wednesday by The Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific. The 100-page report contains short-term and 25-year projections for the state and 11 metro areas, including Fairfield-Vallejo.
"Any time you make long-run comparisons you really have to rely a lot more on trend analysis, while the quarterly forecasts can incorporate things like business cycles, monetary policy and fiscal policy," said Sean Snaith, director of Pacific's Business Forecasting Center and author of the report. "The further out you look, the more difficult it is to be specific and, quite frankly, accurate."
Researchers tried to get a grasp on California's wily real estate market, a task that's kept many economists and analysts busy for the past couple of years as the price of homes rose to record levels.
Similar studies have predicted home prices would continue to rise at a record pace and others have warned of a bursting bubble. But Snaith's study took a moderate tone, likening the housing market to a delicately baked pastry.
"The current housing market is like a soufflé because it is the end result of just the right ingredients put together at just the right time in just the right environment that has allowed for prices to make this historic climb," the study states. ". . . Once any of the ingredients are taken out of the mix, the soufflé will begin to deflate."
It's unlikely, Snaith said, home prices will continue to rise 30 percent every year, and it's just as unlikely the market will crash. Instead, there might be a slowdown as mortgage rates rise, and that could happen by 2007.
"But to go from 30 percent per anum appreciation to 2 percent doesn't seem to me like a bubble bursting," he said.
The wider economic picture shows steady expansion for the next 25 years, with Fairfield-Vallejo expected to progress faster than the state in many economic categories. In particular, personal income growth in the region is expected to outpace the state average.
The employment outlook for Fairfield-Vallejo is strong as well. After marginal growth for the past couple of years, total employment is expected to increase an average of 2.4 percent for the next three years, with the construction industry leading the way.
"I think employment growth is rising at a nice clip," Snaith said. "The Fairfield-Vallejo metro area is above the state average and certainly above national average growth. It's one of the stronger metro areas we covered in the study."
That's because the state will experience a shift in growth centers from the coastal areas to farther inland as the traditionally popular cities reach buildout, Snaith said.
The Business Forecasting Center at Stockton's University of the Pacific was founded in 2004.
Reach Matthew Bunk at 425-4646 Ext. 267 or mbunk@dailyrepublic.net.
Thursday, June 30, 2005
East Bay predicted to lead region in economic gains
Related article: Daily Republic, June 30, 2005
From Contra Costa Times // June 29, 2005
By George Avalos // Business writer
The East Bay will be the economic bulwark of the Bay Area over the next five years and will outpace the region's other major urban centers in economic growth, job creation and personal income, according to a forecast released today.
What's more, the East Bay is helping propel growth not only in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, but also in adjacent areas, according to the quarterly economic report by the Stockton-based Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.
The expansion in the East Bay is one reason Solano County should boom between now and 2010. Growth in housing and population in Solano will also fuel development in that county, which is mostly rural outside the Interstate 80 corridor, said Sean Snaith, director of the Business Forecasting Center.
"In a lot of ways, the East Bay is an engine," Snaith said. "It is pulling Solano County and part of the Central Valley with it as it grows."
The economy of the East Bay is projected to grow 14.6 percent in the coming five years, total personal income by nearly 36 percent and employment by 6.5 percent. And the East Bay already has a bigger economy than either the San Francisco-San Mateo-Marin region and Santa Clara County, the UOP forecasters found.
"The East Bay has become the employment center of the Bay Area," said Bruce Kern, executive director of the Oakland-based Economic Development Alliance for Business.
The report points to the growth of residential and commercial construction in areas such as eastern Contra Costa County and eastern Alameda County as key reasons for the robust economic outlook for the East Bay.
"Those areas have a lot more room to grow," Snaith said.
The East Bay also is an engine that has managed to avoid the bumpy spots that remain in the wake of the Internet and technology debacle that erased hundreds of thousands of jobs in Silicon Valley and the San Francisco area.
"There is still some slack lingering from the boom and bust of the dot-com days," Snaith said. "But I see that slack starting to be picked up."
Solano County looks to be an even faster-growing region in the next five years. Solano's economy is forecast to expand nearly 18 percent, total personal income will soar 38 percent and jobs will swell by 13 percent, the UOP researchers predict.
Manufacturers have opened a number of sites in Solano over the years, including beer and candy factories, as well as newer biotech production complexes.
"It's a combination of the new biotech manufacturing base, the growth of Travis Air Force Base, some traditional agriculture, and an increased population," said Michael Ammann, president of the Fairfield-based Solano Economic Development Corp. "We have a lot of opportunities to participate in growth."
The jump in population has kindled interest in major retail projects along I--80 in Solano. Developers intend to transform part of the county fairgrounds in Vallejo into a retail and entertainment complex. Another entertainment and shopping center is in the works for the Nut Tree site in Vacaville. And an upgrade is being crafted for the Westfield regional mall in Fairfield, Ammann said.
The various growth factors in the East Bay and Solano have prompted banks and other companies, such as Wells Fargo & Co., to ramp up their services, said Michael Billeci, a Wells Fargo regional president who heads the bank's operations in the East Bay and South Bay.
"It makes sense for businesses to follow the housing," he said. "We are definitely in an expansion mode in the East Bay. We also believe the other parts of the Bay Area are not going to grow as quickly as the East Bay and Solano."
Despite the prospect of favorable trends, Kern warned that the East Bay must soon confront a number of challenges that could cause the Alameda-Contra Costa economy to sputter.
"The cost of doing business in the region continues to move upward," he said. "We are concerned about the affordability of housing in the East Bay."
It's not enough, Kern maintained, to have stronger employment and income growth.
"We have to focus on creating a competitive economy to sustain the opportunities for the East Bay that the UOP forecast portrays," he said.
George Avalos covers the economy, financial markets and banks. Reach him at 925-977-8477 or gavalos@cctimes.com.
From Contra Costa Times // June 29, 2005
By George Avalos // Business writer
The East Bay will be the economic bulwark of the Bay Area over the next five years and will outpace the region's other major urban centers in economic growth, job creation and personal income, according to a forecast released today.
What's more, the East Bay is helping propel growth not only in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, but also in adjacent areas, according to the quarterly economic report by the Stockton-based Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.
The expansion in the East Bay is one reason Solano County should boom between now and 2010. Growth in housing and population in Solano will also fuel development in that county, which is mostly rural outside the Interstate 80 corridor, said Sean Snaith, director of the Business Forecasting Center.
"In a lot of ways, the East Bay is an engine," Snaith said. "It is pulling Solano County and part of the Central Valley with it as it grows."
The economy of the East Bay is projected to grow 14.6 percent in the coming five years, total personal income by nearly 36 percent and employment by 6.5 percent. And the East Bay already has a bigger economy than either the San Francisco-San Mateo-Marin region and Santa Clara County, the UOP forecasters found.
"The East Bay has become the employment center of the Bay Area," said Bruce Kern, executive director of the Oakland-based Economic Development Alliance for Business.
The report points to the growth of residential and commercial construction in areas such as eastern Contra Costa County and eastern Alameda County as key reasons for the robust economic outlook for the East Bay.
"Those areas have a lot more room to grow," Snaith said.
The East Bay also is an engine that has managed to avoid the bumpy spots that remain in the wake of the Internet and technology debacle that erased hundreds of thousands of jobs in Silicon Valley and the San Francisco area.
"There is still some slack lingering from the boom and bust of the dot-com days," Snaith said. "But I see that slack starting to be picked up."
Solano County looks to be an even faster-growing region in the next five years. Solano's economy is forecast to expand nearly 18 percent, total personal income will soar 38 percent and jobs will swell by 13 percent, the UOP researchers predict.
Manufacturers have opened a number of sites in Solano over the years, including beer and candy factories, as well as newer biotech production complexes.
"It's a combination of the new biotech manufacturing base, the growth of Travis Air Force Base, some traditional agriculture, and an increased population," said Michael Ammann, president of the Fairfield-based Solano Economic Development Corp. "We have a lot of opportunities to participate in growth."
The jump in population has kindled interest in major retail projects along I--80 in Solano. Developers intend to transform part of the county fairgrounds in Vallejo into a retail and entertainment complex. Another entertainment and shopping center is in the works for the Nut Tree site in Vacaville. And an upgrade is being crafted for the Westfield regional mall in Fairfield, Ammann said.
The various growth factors in the East Bay and Solano have prompted banks and other companies, such as Wells Fargo & Co., to ramp up their services, said Michael Billeci, a Wells Fargo regional president who heads the bank's operations in the East Bay and South Bay.
"It makes sense for businesses to follow the housing," he said. "We are definitely in an expansion mode in the East Bay. We also believe the other parts of the Bay Area are not going to grow as quickly as the East Bay and Solano."
Despite the prospect of favorable trends, Kern warned that the East Bay must soon confront a number of challenges that could cause the Alameda-Contra Costa economy to sputter.
"The cost of doing business in the region continues to move upward," he said. "We are concerned about the affordability of housing in the East Bay."
It's not enough, Kern maintained, to have stronger employment and income growth.
"We have to focus on creating a competitive economy to sustain the opportunities for the East Bay that the UOP forecast portrays," he said.
George Avalos covers the economy, financial markets and banks. Reach him at 925-977-8477 or gavalos@cctimes.com.
New Fairfield-Suisun schools chief settles in
From the Vacaville Reporter // June 30, 2005
By Julie Kay/Staff Writer
TheReporter.Com
Three and a half months after the Fairfield-Suisun Unified School District board appointed Arnold Woodrow Carter as superintendent, the administrator and retired Army colonel arrived Monday, eager to get started.
Carter described his first few days as "outstanding."
"I've been very warmly received," said Carter, who moved to Fairfield two weeks ago from Oakland to take the post being vacated by former Superintendent Sharon Tucker, who is retiring. Carter and Tucker are working together this week before she leaves. Carter, 56, has served as deputy superintendent for the Oakland Unified School District for the past two years.
The Floyd County, Kentucky, native, who goes by A. Woodrow Carter, spent 27 years in the Army, serving as a battalion commander with the 101st Airborne Division during the 1991 Gulf War. Carter retired from the military in 1998 to become the state administrator of the Floyd County school district and returned to school to study education and public administration.
From July 2001 to December 2002 Carter served as superintendent of Bourbon County school district, and was nominated to attend the Broad Center for the Management of School Systems.
The center, founded by billionaire Eli Broad, is led by a faculty which includes CEOs, government leaders, and policy makers. The center accepts only about one out of 10 applicants.
Carter said his interest in education began when he served as a school board member in Killeen, Texas, while still in the Army. Students from various schools in the district would come to the meetings to give presentations, said Carter.
"You could see the passion school board members, parents, and teachers had for their children," said Carter. "I took it very seriously."
Carter believes strongly that student achievement must be a district's top priority, and that politics should never be allowed to get in the way of that.
Fairfield-Suisun, he said, has done an admirable job.
"It's a very mature district," said Carter. "I spent a lot of time researching before I decided to apply. I found a school district that set aside special interests and adult interests for the benefit of student achievement."
That wasn't the district's only attraction, said Carter.
"Fairfield-Suisun has every possible indicator that any aspiring superintendent would check off," he said. "Parent involvement, an informed, educated board, a good academic performance index."
Carter dismissed the idea that he arrives at the district at a difficult time.
"I think some people look at it as a challenging time," said Carter. "I look at it as a point of opportunity. That might sound trite, but in my experience in education the pendulum swings back and forth. We're in a down cycle; this will not last."
In Fairfield-Suisun, said Carter, "I think the challenge ... is to make sure we are maximizing resources" and looking at funding decisions from the perspective of how they ultimately impact kids in the classrooms.
Carter said he has enormous enthusiasm for the work ahead.
"I could have done other things after I retired from the military," he said. "But this is what I want to do."
Julie Kay can be reached at schools@thereporter.com.
By Julie Kay/Staff Writer
TheReporter.Com
Three and a half months after the Fairfield-Suisun Unified School District board appointed Arnold Woodrow Carter as superintendent, the administrator and retired Army colonel arrived Monday, eager to get started.
Carter described his first few days as "outstanding."
"I've been very warmly received," said Carter, who moved to Fairfield two weeks ago from Oakland to take the post being vacated by former Superintendent Sharon Tucker, who is retiring. Carter and Tucker are working together this week before she leaves. Carter, 56, has served as deputy superintendent for the Oakland Unified School District for the past two years.
The Floyd County, Kentucky, native, who goes by A. Woodrow Carter, spent 27 years in the Army, serving as a battalion commander with the 101st Airborne Division during the 1991 Gulf War. Carter retired from the military in 1998 to become the state administrator of the Floyd County school district and returned to school to study education and public administration.
From July 2001 to December 2002 Carter served as superintendent of Bourbon County school district, and was nominated to attend the Broad Center for the Management of School Systems.
The center, founded by billionaire Eli Broad, is led by a faculty which includes CEOs, government leaders, and policy makers. The center accepts only about one out of 10 applicants.
Carter said his interest in education began when he served as a school board member in Killeen, Texas, while still in the Army. Students from various schools in the district would come to the meetings to give presentations, said Carter.
"You could see the passion school board members, parents, and teachers had for their children," said Carter. "I took it very seriously."
Carter believes strongly that student achievement must be a district's top priority, and that politics should never be allowed to get in the way of that.
Fairfield-Suisun, he said, has done an admirable job.
"It's a very mature district," said Carter. "I spent a lot of time researching before I decided to apply. I found a school district that set aside special interests and adult interests for the benefit of student achievement."
That wasn't the district's only attraction, said Carter.
"Fairfield-Suisun has every possible indicator that any aspiring superintendent would check off," he said. "Parent involvement, an informed, educated board, a good academic performance index."
Carter dismissed the idea that he arrives at the district at a difficult time.
"I think some people look at it as a challenging time," said Carter. "I look at it as a point of opportunity. That might sound trite, but in my experience in education the pendulum swings back and forth. We're in a down cycle; this will not last."
In Fairfield-Suisun, said Carter, "I think the challenge ... is to make sure we are maximizing resources" and looking at funding decisions from the perspective of how they ultimately impact kids in the classrooms.
Carter said he has enormous enthusiasm for the work ahead.
"I could have done other things after I retired from the military," he said. "But this is what I want to do."
Julie Kay can be reached at schools@thereporter.com.
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